Hold on, not so fast Mr. Trump. On Tuesday, during your victory speech after winning the Nevada caucuses you proudly proclaimed winning 46 percent of the Latino vote. However, that very impressive number does not tell the true and whole tale of the Nevada Latino vote — nor does it stand up to the rest of the U.S. Latino vote.
“Forty-six percent! Number one with Hispanics!” You said. I beg to differ.
Sure, there is no denying that entrance polls showed you won a significant percent of Latinos who were polled — while Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz only garnered 28 percent and 18 percent respectively of that vote.
Beating the two Latino candidates in the race is reason enough to gloat. But, a win would also mean you had proven wrong all those who said your hateful anti-immigrant, anti-Latino rhetoric would cost you the Latino vote. Revel you should…unless of course, your win was no win at all.
As a businessman, Mr. Trump, you know the truth is in the numbers. And in this case, 46 percent is but a very small portion of a much larger whole.
It is no secret that, like the majority of Latinos in the U.S., Nevada’s Latino voters mostly support Democrats. That’s not likely to change this presidential election. With that claim, I can almost hear you heckle: “That’s not what Tuesday’s exit poll say.” What do those numbers really say, exactly? Not much.
Here, David Damore, a Senior Analyst at Latino Decisions, explains the Nevada ‘win’ best:
“In a recent poll asking about party identification, 55 percent of Latinos said they were Democrats, 29 percent said Independents and just 16 percent said they were Republicans. Assuming the entrance poll is correct (a very big assumption) and Trump won 44 percent of Latino Republicans, that means he was supported by about 7 percent of Latinos in Nevada (44 percent of 16 = 7.04). What that means is that most likely, 93 percent of Latinos in Nevada did not vote for Trump,” David Damore wrote in a statement on Tuesday.
Ouch. That’s gotta hurt.
And, if the 2012 presidential race is any indicator, things won’t look much better in November. If you recall, President Obama won the Hispanic vote 70 percent to Mitt Romney’s 25 percent in Nevada, according to the Pew Research Center. Yes, it’s true, that year Obama votes were down from the 76 percent share he won in 2008, but experts don’t expect much to change in how Latinos in Nevada or other states vote in November.
Still, if you are to seal the Latino vote as you’ve said many times during your campaign, time is ticking.
Texas already predicts to be a loss for you. And while Republican governors Rick Perry and Greg Abbott were able to wrangle the Latino vote here in significant numbers – 38 percent in 2010 and 44 percent in 2014, respectively – Republican presidential candidates have not fared well in this state with Latinos. In 2012, much like in Nevada, Obama won 70 percent of the Latino vote to Romney’s 29 percent.
But to say you’ve already won us over… well, that’s not really the case at all. When, if ever, you’ve won real numbers —not just parts of parts —then let’s talk.